Tough season will persist for a few months yet

Pressure on the British potato market persists with adequate home supplies and large volumes in Europe weighing on the market. By Cedric Porter

Latest potato free-buy prices are less than half what they were a year ago, with Potato Call quoting the best Maris Piper at £180/tonne – a year ago similar potatoes were fetching £400/tonne. Growers with contracts are pleased with the buffer they are providing this year, but after a season of surplus they are having to accept lower values for the 2026/27 season.

We cannot be certain of the potato area that will be planted in 2026, as plentiful supplies of lower priced seed may tempt growers to plant. However, analysis of previous low-priced years would suggest a drop in the area, which could be at least 5% but not as much as 10%. That would mean a planted area of a little below 100,000 hectares and the prospect of another sub five million tonne crop.

The UK market is still a little protected by its island status. In many parts of Northern Europe growers are struggling to shift very large stocks of free-buy potatoes. If they do get a buyer it is not likely to be at a price of any more than €15/tonne, with some offloading stocks for no payment for use as animal feed or biodigestion. With usage by processors also under pressure, particularly in the Netherlands and Belgium, getting rid of the surplus by the end of the season remains a challenge and the prospect of any significant uplift in prices is increasingly remote. With contract prices for 2026/27 down by as much as 20% across Northern Europe and buyers trimming the volumes they need, a reduction of 10% in the European area in 2026 is quite possible.

Imports start to slip

The UK continues to import large volumes of frozen fries, but there are signs of a slowdown. Imports in the last year have fallen by 3.5% and fell by 6.0% in the five months to the end of November. That may suggest pressure on the UK foodservice sector which is a large buyer of Dutch and Belgian chips of fries. Globally, European and North American processors are facing greater competition from Chinese and Indian suppliers of lower priced product. Few consignments have reached Europe yet, but the duo are making inroads across Asian markets.

Seed potato exports in October and November were up 1.2% on the 2024 figure at 58,411 tonnes. However, December trade was down 18.5% with a 21.4% drop in sales to Egypt, which will be of concern. Normally more than three quarters of UK seed exports are down between October and December. The trade in fresh potatoes remains weak.

Among the bad news for British and European growers, is evidence that fresh potato sales are increasing as hard-pressed consumers recognise the value and versatility of the crop. There is also the knowledge that no two seasons and the same and there is the possibility that smaller and later planting could tighten supplies dramatically in 2026/27 and support prices. That is without factoring in the increasingly volatile weather.

Cedric Porter is editor of World Potato Markets – www.worldpotatomarkets.com